Why Were Temperatures So High in 2023?
I am still awaiting late data updates for a refresh of Climate Change: Reasons to Worry Less. But a preview of one particular data set appears quite apt.
Analysis of the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) satellite based estimate of radiative balance, through November of 2023, indicates the following:
The estimate of the all sky absorbed solar radiation anomaly, with respect to the period of record means, indicates absorbed solar radiation was quite high, well above the trend line. The 2000 through November 2023 trend of 8.2 W/m²
per century is roughly twice the rate of radiative forcing from greenhouse gasses associated with global warming!
Now, there is uncertainty with the ability of satellites to accurately make this estimate. And though such an increase is not modeled, it could conceivably be a result of other climate changes. Or it could be completely natural.
In any event, it is not surprising that 2023 experienced such high temperature anomalies.
Notes:
https://ceres-tool.larc.nasa.gov/ord-tool/jsp/EBAFTOA42Selection.jsp
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Loeb, N. G., W. Su, D.R. Doelling, T. Wong, P. Minnis, S. Thomas, W.F. Miller, 2016: Earth’s top-of-atmosphere radiation budget, ScienceDirect, Reference Module in Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences. Full PDF Version doi: 10.1016/B978-0-12-409548-9.10367-7 .
Loeb, N. G., D. R. Doelling, H. Wang, W. Su, C. Nguyen, J. G. Corbett, L. Liang, C. Mitrescu, F. G. Rose, and S. Kato, 2018: Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF) Top-of-Atmosphere (TOA) Edition-4.0 Data Product. J. Climate, 31, 895-918, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0208.1.
Kato, S., F. G. Rose, D. A. Rutan, T. E. Thorsen, N. G. Loeb, D. R. Doelling, X. Huang, W. L. Smith, W. Su, and S.-H. Ham, 2018: Surface irradiances of Edition 4.0 Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF) data product, J. Climate, 31, 4501-4527, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0523.1.